ANALYSIS OF BANK HEALTH STABILITY USING THE LOTKA-VOLTERRA COMPETITION MODEL APPROACH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23969/trikonomika.v25i1.23391Keywords:
BRI, forecasting, liquidity, LV model, profitability, stability of bank healthAbstract
The purpose of this study is to conduct a mathematical analysis to determine the stability of bank health through profitability and liquidity variables. Profitability is measured by return on assets (ROA), and liquidity is measured by the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR). In addition, this study also forecasts the ROA and LDR values for the next few years. This study adopts the Lotka-Volterra (LV) competition model approach. The data used are ROA and LDR values from the annual report of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) Tbk for the period 2007-2023. The results of the study show that BRI bank is in a healthy condition in the period 2012-2023. On the other hand, the stability analysis shows that BRI bank’s health is stable. The forecasting results of the ROA and LDR values are stagnant. However, the ROA and LDR values are still healthy because they remain above the minimum threshold.
Downloads
References
Acharya, V., & Naqvi, H. (2012). The Seeds of a Crisis: A Theory of Bank Liquidity and Risk Taking Over the Business Cycle. Journal of Financial Economics, 106(2), 349–366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.05.014.
Ahmad, S., Wan Ahmad, W. M., & Shaharuddin, S. S. (2022). Is Excess of Everything Bad? Ramifications of Excess Liquidity on Bank Stability: Evidence from the Dual Banking System. Borsa Istanbul Review, 22, S92–S107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2022.09.008.
Ali, M., Ibrahim, M. H., & Shah, M. E. (2022). Impact of Non-intermediation Activities of Banks on Economic Growth and Volatility: An Evidence from OIC. The Singapore Economic Review, 67(01), 333–348. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590820420023.
Ang, T. K., Safuan, H. M., Roslan, U. A. M., & Mohd, M. H. (2019). Optimal Harvesting Regions of a Polluted Predator-prey Fishery System. In Dynamical Systems, Bifurcation Analysis and Applications (pp. 15–29). Springer Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-32-9832-3_2.
Banerjee, S., & Velamuri, M. (2015). The Conundrum of Profitability Versus Soundness for Banks by Ownership Type: Evidence from the Indian Banking Sector. Review of Financial Economics, 26(1), 12–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2015.04.001.
Bassey, G. E., & Moses, C. E. (2015). Bank Profitability and Liquidity Management: A Case Study of Selected Nigerian Deposit Money Banks. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 3(4), 1–24.
Belkhir, M., Naceur, S. Ben, Candelon, B., & Wijnandts, J.-C. (2022). Macroprudential Policies, Economic Growth and Banking Crises. Emerging Markets Review, 53, 100936. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2022.100936.
BI. (2024). Peraturan Bank Indonesia Nomor 13/1/PBI/2011 tanggal 5 Januari 2011 tentang Penilaian Tingkat Kesehatan Bank Umum. Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/peraturan/Pages/pbi_130111.aspx.
BRI. (2024). Laporan tahunan. PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.
Castle, J. L., Doornik, J.A., & Hendry, D.F. (2023). Improving Models and Forecasts after Equilibrium-mean Shift. International of Forecasting, 40(3), 1085-1100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.09.006.
Gill, H. (2022). Relationship Between Liquidity and Profitability: An Analysis of Indian Cement Companies. Journal of Management Research and Analysis, 9(2), 61–66. https://doi.org/10.18231/j.jmra.2022.013.
Hasan, N. I. (2014). Pengantar Perbankan. Jakarta: Gaung Persada Press Group.
Hastings, A. (2013). Population Biology: Concepts and Models. New York: Springer Science & Business Media.
Jamal, S. W., & Suparno, S. (2022). A Solution Management in Handling Economic Inequality Among Agrarian Communities. BHUMI: Jurnal Agraria dan Pertanahan, 8(1), 68–83. https://doi.org/10.31292/bhumi.v8i1.528.
Jamal, S. W., Suparno, S., Fauziah, F., & Anindita, M. (2024). Analisis Tipe Kompetisi, Dinamika Kestabilan, dan Peramalan Perolehan Laba Bersih Lembaga Keuangan Bank. JAK (Jurnal Akuntansi) Kajian Ilmiah Akuntansi, 11(2), 316–330. https://doi.org/10.30656/jak.v11i2.7912.
Jamal, S. W., Suparno, S., Fauziah, F., Rashid, U. K., & Latief, A. (2024). Analysis of the Dynamics of Interaction Between Profitability and Liquidity Using a Predator-prey Model Approach. BISMA (Bisnis dan Manajemen), 240–260. https://doi.org/10.26740/bisma.v16n2.p240-260.
Jamal, S. W., Suparno, S., Hadiyanti, S. U. E., Sadidah, D., & Dewi, M. (2024). The Bionomic Equilibrium Model for Balancing Forest Conservation and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia. BHUMI: Jurnal Agraria dan Pertanahan, 9(2), 126–140. https://doi.org/10.31292/bhumi.v9i2.679.
Jamal, S. W., Suparno, S., Rashid, U. K., & Fauziah, F. (2024). Competition Dynamics of Market Share for Assets in the Banking Industry Using the Lotka-Volterra Model Approach. ETIKONOMI, 23(2), 299–316. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v23i2.32226.
Javid, M., Chandia, K. E., & Malik, Q. U. Z. (2024). Nexus of Liquidity Creation, Profitability, and Bank Stability with the Moderating Role of Corruption: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Financial Crime, 31(6), 1332-1361. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFC-08-2023-0198.
KemensetnegRI. (2024). Menuju Ekonomi Berkeadilan: Optimalisasi Sektor Perbankan BUMN. Kementerian Sekretariat Negara RI.
Kloppers, P. H., & Greeff, J. C. (2013). Lotka–Volterra Model Parameter Estimation Using Experiential Data. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 224, 817–825. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2013.08.093.
Koroleva, E., Jigeer, S., Miao, A., & Skhvediani, A. (2021). Determinants Affecting Profitability of State-owned Commercial Banks: Case Study of China. Risks, 9(8), 150. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9080150.
Mohammed, W. W., Aly, E. S., Matouk, A. E., Albosaily, S., & Elabbasy, E. M. (2021). An Analytical Study of the Dynamic Behavior of Lotka-Volterra Based Models of COVID-19. Results in Physics, 26, 104432. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104432.
Mougi, A. (2016). The Roles of Amensalistic and Commensalistic Interactions in Large Ecological Network Stability. Scientific Reports, 6(1), 29929. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep29929.
Novoa-Muñoz, F., Gómez-Fuentealba, N., & Osorio-Baeza, F. (2021). Lotka–Volterra Model Applied to Two Sympatric Species of Liolaemus in Competition. Ecological Modelling, 439, 109347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109347.
OJK. (2019). Buku 2 Perbankan: Seri Literasi Keuangan. Otoritas Jasa Keuangan.
Olagunju, A., David, A. O., & Samuel, O. O. (2011). Liquidity Management and Commercial Bank’s Profitability in Nigeria. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2(7/8), 24–38.
Paul, S. C., Bhowmik, P. K., & Famanna, M. N. (2021). Impact of Liquidity on Profitability: A Study on the Commercial Banks in Bangladesh. Advances in Management and Applied Economics, 11(1), 73–90. https://doi.org/10.47260/amae/1114.
Santoso, T., Firmansyah, E. A., Sapulette, M. S., & Setiawan, M. (2023). The Impact of Industry Concentration on Stability: The Case of Indonesian Islamic-Commercial Banks. International Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance (IJIEF), 6(2), 201–224. https://doi.org/10.18196/ijief.v6i2.17892.
Thinh, T. Q., Thuy, L. X., & Tuan, D. A. (2022). The Impact of Liquidity on Profitability – Evidence of Vietnamese Listed Commercial Banks. Bank and Bank Systems, 17(1), 94–103. https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.17(1).2022.08.
Vu, T. H. (2024) Liquidity Coverage Ratio and Profitability: An Inverted U-shaped Pattern. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1), 2426532. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2426532.
Windarto, W., & Eridani, E. (2020). On Modification and Application of Lotka-Volterra Competition Model. AIP Conference Proceedings, 2268, 050007. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0017242.
Wiyati, R., Murnawati, M., & Liviawati, L. (2023). Penilaian Tingkat Kesehatan Keuangan PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Sebelum Pandemi dan Saat Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Daya Saing, 9(2), 469–474. https://doi.org/10.35446/dayasaing.v9i2.977.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Sri Wahyuni Jamal, Suparno, M. Risal, Kholifatun Nisa, Namirah Khairunnisa
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
